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Kasımpaşa vs Alanya 1221 FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alanya 1221 FK
Alanya 1221 FK
11/30/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kasımpaşa66%
×Draw18%
Alanya 1221 FK17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
2.56
Alanya 1221 FK
1.22

Kasımpaşa creates 110% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
2.63
Alanya 1221 FK
1.00

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
1.44
Alanya 1221 FK
2.50

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par
Alanya 1221 FK+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Alanya 1221 FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
83%
Kasımpaşa or Alanya 1221 FK
82%
Draw or Alanya 1221 FK
34%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
44%
Alanya 1221 FK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
92%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
72%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
46%
Alanya 1221 FK 1+ goals
70%
Alanya 1221 FK 2+ goals
34%
Alanya 1221 FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
80%
Alanya 1221 FK (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Alanya 1221 FK away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 2.63 + Alanya 1221 FK defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.56

Alanya 1221 FK attack 1.00 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
66%
level
18%
Alanya 1221 FK scores more
17%

Kasımpaşa at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kasımpaşa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasımpaşa vs Alanya 1221 FK

Kasımpaşa beat Alanya 1221 FK 5-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 30, 2021.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.