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Kasımpaşa vs 68 Aksaray Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
10/31/2023Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kasımpaşa63%
×Draw20%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
2.17
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
1.05

Kasımpaşa creates 107% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
2.53
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
0.70

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
1.40
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
1.80

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par
68 Aksaray Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

68 Aksaray Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
83%
Kasımpaşa or 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
80%
Draw or 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
37%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
39%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
89%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
64%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
36%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor 1+ goals
65%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor 2+ goals
28%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
78%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

68 Aksaray Belediyespor away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 2.53 + 68 Aksaray Belediyespor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.17

68 Aksaray Belediyespor attack 0.70 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
63%
level
20%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor scores more
17%

Kasımpaşa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kasımpaşa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasımpaşa vs 68 Aksaray Belediyespor

Kasımpaşa beat 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 31, 2023.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.