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Kasımpaşa vs 1461 Trabzon FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
6 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
1461 Trabzon FK
1461 Trabzon FK
11/8/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kasımpaşa78%
×Draw14%
1461 Trabzon FK8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
2.83
1461 Trabzon FK
0.82

Kasımpaşa creates 245% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
2.53
1461 Trabzon FK
0.25

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
1.40
1461 Trabzon FK
3.13

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par
1461 Trabzon FK+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

1461 Trabzon FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
92%
Kasımpaşa or 1461 Trabzon FK
86%
Draw or 1461 Trabzon FK
22%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
58%
1461 Trabzon FK wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
94%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
77%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
53%
1461 Trabzon FK 1+ goals
56%
1461 Trabzon FK 2+ goals
20%
1461 Trabzon FK 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
90%
1461 Trabzon FK (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

1461 Trabzon FK away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 2.53 + 1461 Trabzon FK defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.83

1461 Trabzon FK attack 0.25 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
78%
level
14%
1461 Trabzon FK scores more
8%

Kasımpaşa at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Kasımpaşa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kasımpaşa 6–1 1461 Trabzon FK

Kasımpaşa beat 1461 Trabzon FK 6-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 8, 2022.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.