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Karviná vs Sparta Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Karviná
Karviná
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
2/15/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 22Městský Stadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Karviná26%
×Draw25%
Sparta Praha49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná
1.13
Sparta Praha
1.64

Sparta Praha creates 45% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 119 away

creates per match

Karviná
1.16
Sparta Praha
1.82

allows per match

Karviná
1.45
Sparta Praha
1.09

finishing

Karviná+0.00on par
Sparta Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná ↓

Sparta Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Karviná or draw
51%
Karviná or Sparta Praha
75%
Draw or Sparta Praha
74%

Winning margin

Karviná wins by 2+
10%
Sparta Praha wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Karviná 1+ goals
68%
Karviná 2+ goals
31%
Karviná 3+ goals
11%
Sparta Praha 1+ goals
81%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
49%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Karviná (draw refunded)
35%
Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 101 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.09 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná attack 1.16 + Sparta Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sparta Praha attack 1.82 + Karviná defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Karviná scores more
26%
level
25%
Sparta Praha scores more
49%

Sparta Praha at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karviná vs Sparta Praha

Sparta Praha beat Karviná 3-2 in Czech Liga on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Městský Stadión in Karviná.