Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karviná vs Slovan Liberec — Czech Liga 2019

Karviná
Karviná
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
7/21/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 1Městský Stadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Karviná37%
×Draw27%
Slovan Liberec37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná
1.29
Slovan Liberec
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 118 away

creates per match

Karviná
1.16
Slovan Liberec
1.14

allows per match

Karviná
1.45
Slovan Liberec
1.43

finishing

Karviná+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná ↓

Slovan Liberec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Karviná or draw
63%
Karviná or Slovan Liberec
73%
Draw or Slovan Liberec
63%

Winning margin

Karviná wins by 2+
16%
Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Karviná 1+ goals
72%
Karviná 2+ goals
37%
Karviná 3+ goals
14%
Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
72%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
37%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Karviná (draw refunded)
50%
Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 101 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná attack 1.16 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Slovan Liberec attack 1.14 + Karviná defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Karviná scores more
37%
level
27%
Slovan Liberec scores more
37%

Karviná at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Karviná will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Karviná 1–3 Slovan Liberec

Slovan Liberec beat Karviná 3-1 in Czech Liga on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Městský Stadión in Karviná.