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Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav — Czech Liga 2019

Karviná
Karviná
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mlada Boleslav
Mlada Boleslav
3/30/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 27Městský Stadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Karviná38%
×Draw26%
Mlada Boleslav36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná
1.39
Mlada Boleslav
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 120 away

creates per match

Karviná
1.16
Mlada Boleslav
1.23

allows per match

Karviná
1.45
Mlada Boleslav
1.62

finishing

Karviná+0.00on par
Mlada Boleslav+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná ↓

Mlada Boleslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Karviná or draw
64%
Karviná or Mlada Boleslav
74%
Draw or Mlada Boleslav
62%

Winning margin

Karviná wins by 2+
18%
Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Karviná 1+ goals
75%
Karviná 2+ goals
40%
Karviná 3+ goals
16%
Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals
74%
Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals
39%
Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Karviná (draw refunded)
52%
Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 101 matches

Mlada Boleslav away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná attack 1.16 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.23 + Karviná defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Karviná scores more
38%
level
26%
Mlada Boleslav scores more
36%

Karviná at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Karviná will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav

Karviná beat Mlada Boleslav 3-1 in Czech Liga on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Městský Stadión in Karviná.