Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karviná vs Gornik Zabrze — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Karviná
Karviná
FT
1 – 2
Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze
6/30/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hřiště Bažantnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Karviná44%
×Draw26%
Gornik Zabrze30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná
1.45
Gornik Zabrze
1.16

Karviná creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

Karviná
2.14
Gornik Zabrze
1.38

allows per match

Karviná
0.93
Gornik Zabrze
0.75

finishing

Karviná+0.00on par
Gornik Zabrze+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná ↓

Gornik Zabrze →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Karviná or draw
70%
Karviná or Gornik Zabrze
74%
Draw or Gornik Zabrze
56%

Winning margin

Karviná wins by 2+
21%
Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Karviná 1+ goals
77%
Karviná 2+ goals
42%
Karviná 3+ goals
18%
Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals
69%
Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals
32%
Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Karviná (draw refunded)
59%
Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Gornik Zabrze away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná attack 2.14 + Gornik Zabrze defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.45

Gornik Zabrze attack 1.38 + Karviná defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Karviná scores more
44%
level
26%
Gornik Zabrze scores more
30%

Karviná at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Karviná will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Karviná 1–2 Gornik Zabrze

Gornik Zabrze beat Karviná 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Hřiště Bažantnice in Karviná.