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Karviná vs Baník Ostrava — Czech Liga 2019

Karviná
Karviná
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Baník Ostrava
Baník Ostrava
11/5/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 14Městský Stadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Karviná35%
×Draw26%
Baník Ostrava39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná
1.27
Baník Ostrava
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 124 away

creates per match

Karviná
1.16
Baník Ostrava
1.26

allows per match

Karviná
1.45
Baník Ostrava
1.38

finishing

Karviná+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná ↓

Baník Ostrava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Karviná or draw
61%
Karviná or Baník Ostrava
74%
Draw or Baník Ostrava
65%

Winning margin

Karviná wins by 2+
15%
Baník Ostrava wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Karviná 1+ goals
72%
Karviná 2+ goals
36%
Karviná 3+ goals
14%
Baník Ostrava 1+ goals
74%
Baník Ostrava 2+ goals
39%
Baník Ostrava 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Karviná (draw refunded)
47%
Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 101 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.38 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná attack 1.16 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Baník Ostrava attack 1.26 + Karviná defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karviná scores more
35%
level
26%
Baník Ostrava scores more
39%

Baník Ostrava at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Karviná 1–3 Baník Ostrava

Baník Ostrava beat Karviná 3-1 in Czech Liga on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Městský Stadión in Karviná.