Baník Ostrava 2–2 Karviná: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Karviná

4/14/2024

Czech Liga · Round 28Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Baník Ostrava63%

×Draw19%

Karviná18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník OstravaExpected goals in this matchKarviná

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.25

Baník Ostrava

2.43

Karviná

1.25

Baník Ostrava creates 94% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.15

creates per match

1.13

1.37

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Baník Ostrava

2.15

Karviná

1.13

allows per match

Baník Ostrava

1.37

Karviná

2.71

+0.02on par

finishing

+0.67scores more than expected

finishing

Baník Ostrava+0.02on par

Karviná+0.67scores more

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

Karviná →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw

82%

Baník Ostrava or Karviná

81%

Draw or Karviná

37%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

41%

Karviná wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

91%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

69%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

43%

Karviná 1+ goals

71%

Karviná 2+ goals

36%

Karviná 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

77%

Karviná (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

Karviná away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.71 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 2.15 + Karviná defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.43

Karviná attack 1.13 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more

63%

level

19%

Karviná scores more

18%

Baník Ostrava at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff