Karviná U19 3–2 Vysočina Jihlava U19

Karviná U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Vysočina Jihlava U19

10/21/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 12Stadion Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Karviná U1958%

×Draw20%

Vysočina Jihlava U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karviná U19Expected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.33

Karviná U19

2.25

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.33

Karviná U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 60 away

2.16

creates per match

1.15

1.52

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Karviná U19

2.16

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.15

allows per match

Karviná U19

1.52

Vysočina Jihlava U19

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karviná U19+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná U19 ↓

Vysočina Jihlava U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Karviná U19 or draw

78%

Karviná U19 or Vysočina Jihlava U19

80%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava U19

42%

Winning margin

Karviná U19 wins by 2+

36%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Karviná U19 1+ goals

89%

Karviná U19 2+ goals

65%

Karviná U19 3+ goals

39%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 1+ goals

74%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 2+ goals

38%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Karviná U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná U19 at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.52 · 64 matches

Vysočina Jihlava U19 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.35 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná U19 attack 2.16 + Vysočina Jihlava U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.25

Vysočina Jihlava U19 attack 1.15 + Karviná U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Karviná U19 scores more

58%

level

20%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 scores more

22%

Karviná U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Karviná U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff