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Karviná U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec — 1. Liga U19 2020

Karviná U19
Karviná U19
FT
0 – 2
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
9/11/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 7Hřiště Bažantnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Karviná U1939%
×Draw22%
Jindřichův Hradec39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná U19
1.80
Jindřichův Hradec
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 64 away

creates per match

Karviná U19
2.16
Jindřichův Hradec
2.13

allows per match

Karviná U19
1.52
Jindřichův Hradec
1.44

finishing

Karviná U19+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná U19 ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Karviná U19 or draw
61%
Karviná U19 or Jindřichův Hradec
78%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
61%

Winning margin

Karviná U19 wins by 2+
20%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Karviná U19 1+ goals
83%
Karviná U19 2+ goals
54%
Karviná U19 3+ goals
27%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
84%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
54%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Karviná U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná U19 at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.52 · 64 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná U19 attack 2.16 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.80

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.13 + Karviná U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karviná U19 scores more
39%
level
22%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
39%

Karviná U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Karviná U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karviná U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec

Jindřichův Hradec beat Karviná U19 2-0 in 1. Liga U19 on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Hřiště Bažantnice in Karviná.