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Jindřichův Hradec vs Karviná U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Karviná U19
Karviná U19
4/23/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 22Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec62%
×Draw19%
Karviná U1919%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
2.33
Karviná U19
1.21

Jindřichův Hradec creates 93% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 63 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.36
Karviná U19
1.24

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.17
Karviná U19
2.29

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Karviná U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Karviná U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
81%
Jindřichův Hradec or Karviná U19
81%
Draw or Karviná U19
38%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
40%
Karviná U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
90%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
67%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
41%
Karviná U19 1+ goals
70%
Karviná U19 2+ goals
34%
Karviná U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
77%
Karviná U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Karviná U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.29 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + Karviná U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.33

Karviná U19 attack 1.24 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
62%
level
19%
Karviná U19 scores more
19%

Jindřichův Hradec at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jindřichův Hradec vs Karviná U19

Jindřichův Hradec beat Karviná U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Chvalech in Praha.