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Karviná II vs Vratimov — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Karviná II
Karviná II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vratimov
Vratimov
7/8/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Karviná II46%
×Draw21%
Vratimov34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná II
2.15
Vratimov
1.83

Karviná II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Karviná II
2.50
Vratimov
2.00

allows per match

Karviná II
1.67
Vratimov
1.80

finishing

Karviná II+0.00on par
Vratimov+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná II ↓

Vratimov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Karviná II or draw
66%
Karviná II or Vratimov
79%
Draw or Vratimov
54%

Winning margin

Karviná II wins by 2+
26%
Vratimov wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Karviná II 1+ goals
88%
Karviná II 2+ goals
63%
Karviná II 3+ goals
36%
Vratimov 1+ goals
84%
Vratimov 2+ goals
54%
Vratimov 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Karviná II (draw refunded)
58%
Vratimov (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Vratimov away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná II attack 2.50 + Vratimov defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.15

Vratimov attack 2.00 + Karviná II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Karviná II scores more
46%
level
21%
Vratimov scores more
34%

Karviná II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karviná II vs Vratimov

Karviná II and Vratimov drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 8, 2026.