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Karviná II vs Třinec — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Karviná II
Karviná II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Třinec
Třinec
4/4/20263. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 22Stadion Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Karviná II34%
×Draw24%
Třinec42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná II
1.43
Třinec
1.61

Třinec creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

Karviná II
1.51
Třinec
1.66

allows per match

Karviná II
1.57
Třinec
1.34

finishing

Karviná II+0.00on par
Třinec+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná II ↓

Třinec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Karviná II or draw
58%
Karviná II or Třinec
76%
Draw or Třinec
66%

Winning margin

Karviná II wins by 2+
16%
Třinec wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Karviná II 1+ goals
76%
Karviná II 2+ goals
42%
Karviná II 3+ goals
17%
Třinec 1+ goals
80%
Třinec 2+ goals
48%
Třinec 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Karviná II (draw refunded)
45%
Třinec (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Třinec away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná II attack 1.51 + Třinec defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Třinec attack 1.66 + Karviná II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Karviná II scores more
34%
level
24%
Třinec scores more
42%

Třinec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Třinec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Karviná II 0–1 Třinec

Třinec beat Karviná II 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Kovona in Karvina.