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Karviná II vs Krnov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Karviná II
Karviná II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Krnov
Krnov
4/30/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 20Stadion Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Karviná II76%
×Draw14%
Krnov10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná II
2.93
Krnov
0.98

Karviná II creates 199% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 43 away

creates per match

Karviná II
2.84
Krnov
0.93

allows per match

Karviná II
1.03
Krnov
3.02

finishing

Karviná II+0.00on par
Krnov+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná II ↓

Krnov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Karviná II or draw
90%
Karviná II or Krnov
86%
Draw or Krnov
24%

Winning margin

Karviná II wins by 2+
56%
Krnov wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Karviná II 1+ goals
94%
Karviná II 2+ goals
78%
Karviná II 3+ goals
55%
Krnov 1+ goals
62%
Krnov 2+ goals
26%
Krnov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Karviná II (draw refunded)
89%
Krnov (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná II at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Krnov away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná II attack 2.84 + Krnov defence 3.02 → ÷2 → 2.93

Krnov attack 0.93 + Karviná II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Karviná II scores more
76%
level
14%
Krnov scores more
10%

Karviná II at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Karviná II 2–1 Krnov

Karviná II beat Krnov 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kovona in Karviná.