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Karvan vs Zaqatala — Birinci Dasta 2019

Karvan
Karvan
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
12/25/2023Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 12Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Karvan46%
×Draw25%
Zaqatala29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karvan
1.57
Zaqatala
1.21

Karvan creates 30% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 90 away

creates per match

Karvan
1.57
Zaqatala
1.27

allows per match

Karvan
1.14
Zaqatala
1.57

finishing

Karvan+0.00on par
Zaqatala+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karvan ↓

Zaqatala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Karvan or draw
71%
Karvan or Zaqatala
75%
Draw or Zaqatala
54%

Winning margin

Karvan wins by 2+
23%
Zaqatala wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Karvan 1+ goals
79%
Karvan 2+ goals
46%
Karvan 3+ goals
21%
Zaqatala 1+ goals
70%
Zaqatala 2+ goals
34%
Zaqatala 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Karvan (draw refunded)
61%
Zaqatala (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karvan at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Zaqatala away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.57 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karvan attack 1.57 + Zaqatala defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.57

Zaqatala attack 1.27 + Karvan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Karvan scores more
46%
level
25%
Zaqatala scores more
29%

Karvan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Karvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: Karvan 0–2 Zaqatala

Zaqatala beat Karvan 2-0 in Birinci Dasta on December 25, 2023.

The match was played at Şəhər stadionu in Evlakh.