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Karvan vs Araz Saatlı — Birinci Dasta 2019

Karvan
Karvan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Araz Saatlı
Araz Saatlı
2/21/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 15Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Karvan71%
×Draw16%
Araz Saatlı13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karvan
2.60
Araz Saatlı
1.03

Karvan creates 152% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

creates per match

Karvan
1.57
Araz Saatlı
0.92

allows per match

Karvan
1.14
Araz Saatlı
3.62

finishing

Karvan+0.00on par
Araz Saatlı+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karvan ↓

Araz Saatlı →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Karvan or draw
87%
Karvan or Araz Saatlı
84%
Draw or Araz Saatlı
29%

Winning margin

Karvan wins by 2+
49%
Araz Saatlı wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Karvan 1+ goals
92%
Karvan 2+ goals
73%
Karvan 3+ goals
47%
Araz Saatlı 1+ goals
64%
Araz Saatlı 2+ goals
28%
Araz Saatlı 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Karvan (draw refunded)
84%
Araz Saatlı (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karvan at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Araz Saatlı away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karvan attack 1.57 + Araz Saatlı defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.60

Araz Saatlı attack 0.92 + Karvan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Karvan scores more
71%
level
16%
Araz Saatlı scores more
13%

Karvan at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Karvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: Karvan 1–0 Araz Saatlı

Karvan beat Araz Saatlı 1-0 in Birinci Dasta on February 21, 2024.

The match was played at Şəhər stadionu in Evlakh.