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Karsiyaka vs Muğlaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Karsiyaka
Karsiyaka
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Muğlaspor
Muğlaspor
9/12/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd Roundİzmir Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Karsiyaka30%
×Draw28%
Muğlaspor42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karsiyaka
1.00
Muğlaspor
1.25

Muğlaspor creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Karsiyaka
1.00
Muğlaspor
1.83

allows per match

Karsiyaka
0.67
Muğlaspor
1.00

finishing

Karsiyaka+0.00on par
Muğlaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karsiyaka ↓

Muğlaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Karsiyaka or draw
58%
Karsiyaka or Muğlaspor
72%
Draw or Muğlaspor
70%

Winning margin

Karsiyaka wins by 2+
11%
Muğlaspor wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Karsiyaka 1+ goals
63%
Karsiyaka 2+ goals
26%
Karsiyaka 3+ goals
8%
Muğlaspor 1+ goals
71%
Muğlaspor 2+ goals
36%
Muğlaspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Karsiyaka (draw refunded)
41%
Muğlaspor (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karsiyaka at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Muğlaspor away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karsiyaka attack 1.00 + Muğlaspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Muğlaspor attack 1.83 + Karsiyaka defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Karsiyaka scores more
30%
level
28%
Muğlaspor scores more
42%

Muğlaspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Muğlaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karsiyaka vs Muğlaspor

Karsiyaka and Muğlaspor drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 12, 2019.

The match was played at İzmir Atatürk Stadyumu in İzmir.