Karsiyaka 1–2 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats

Karsiyaka

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ankaragücü

12/4/2024

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundAlsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Karsiyaka46%

×Draw27%

Ankaragücü27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarsiyakaExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.00

Karsiyaka

1.39

Ankaragücü

1.00

Karsiyaka creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

0.67

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Karsiyaka

1.00

Ankaragücü

1.33

allows per match

Karsiyaka

0.67

Ankaragücü

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karsiyaka+0.00on par

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karsiyaka ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Karsiyaka or draw

73%

Karsiyaka or Ankaragücü

73%

Draw or Ankaragücü

54%

Winning margin

Karsiyaka wins by 2+

22%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Karsiyaka 1+ goals

75%

Karsiyaka 2+ goals

40%

Karsiyaka 3+ goals

16%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

63%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

26%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Karsiyaka (draw refunded)

63%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karsiyaka at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karsiyaka attack 1.00 + Ankaragücü defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ankaragücü attack 1.33 + Karsiyaka defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Karsiyaka scores more

46%

level

27%

Ankaragücü scores more

27%

Karsiyaka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Karsiyaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff