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Kars 36 vs Pazarspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kars 36
Kars 36
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pazarspor
Pazarspor
9/10/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundKafkas Üniversitesi Abamüslüm Güven Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kars 3655%
×Draw25%
Pazarspor19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kars 36
1.58
Pazarspor
0.82

Kars 36 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kars 36
0.50
Pazarspor
0.89

allows per match

Kars 36
0.75
Pazarspor
2.67

finishing

Kars 36+0.00on par
Pazarspor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kars 36 ↓

Pazarspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kars 36 or draw
81%
Kars 36 or Pazarspor
75%
Draw or Pazarspor
45%

Winning margin

Kars 36 wins by 2+
29%
Pazarspor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kars 36 1+ goals
79%
Kars 36 2+ goals
47%
Kars 36 3+ goals
21%
Pazarspor 1+ goals
56%
Pazarspor 2+ goals
20%
Pazarspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kars 36 (draw refunded)
74%
Pazarspor (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kars 36 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Pazarspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kars 36 attack 0.50 + Pazarspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Pazarspor attack 0.89 + Kars 36 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kars 36 scores more
55%
level
25%
Pazarspor scores more
19%

Kars 36 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kars 36 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kars 36 0–0 Pazarspor

Kars 36 and Pazarspor drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 10, 2019.

The match was played at Kafkas Üniversitesi Abamüslüm Güven Stadyumu in Kars.