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Kars 36 vs 24 Erzincanspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kars 36
Kars 36
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
24 Erzincanspor
24 Erzincanspor
M. Caglar 79'
9/3/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundKars Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kars 3649%
×Draw27%
24 Erzincanspor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kars 36
1.40
24 Erzincanspor
0.88

Kars 36 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kars 36
0.50
24 Erzincanspor
1.00

allows per match

Kars 36
0.75
24 Erzincanspor
2.29

finishing

Kars 36+0.00on par
24 Erzincanspor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kars 36 ↓

24 Erzincanspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kars 36 or draw
76%
Kars 36 or 24 Erzincanspor
73%
Draw or 24 Erzincanspor
51%

Winning margin

Kars 36 wins by 2+
24%
24 Erzincanspor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kars 36 1+ goals
75%
Kars 36 2+ goals
41%
Kars 36 3+ goals
17%
24 Erzincanspor 1+ goals
59%
24 Erzincanspor 2+ goals
22%
24 Erzincanspor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kars 36 (draw refunded)
67%
24 Erzincanspor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kars 36 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

24 Erzincanspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kars 36 attack 0.50 + 24 Erzincanspor defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

24 Erzincanspor attack 1.00 + Kars 36 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kars 36 scores more
49%
level
27%
24 Erzincanspor scores more
24%

Kars 36 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kars 36 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

79'
M. Caglar
Kars
24
İ. Tekatlı
Manager: İ. Tekatlı
Fatih Azak
Manager: Fatih Azak

Türkiye Kupası: Kars 36 0–1 24 Erzincanspor

24 Erzincanspor beat Kars 36 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 3, 2025.

Goals: M. Caglar (79').

The match was played at Kars Şehir Stadyumu in Kars.