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KarPo vs LAUTP — Suomen Cup 2018

KarPo
KarPo
FT
0 – 2
LAUTP
LAUTP
3/5/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundArto Tolsa Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KarPo2%
×Draw5%
LAUTP93%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KarPo
0.63
LAUTP
4.38

LAUTP creates 595% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

KarPo
0.25
LAUTP
2.50

allows per match

KarPo
6.25
LAUTP
1.00

finishing

KarPo+0.00on par
LAUTP+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KarPo ↓

LAUTP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–28%
0–311%
0–412%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (12%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

KarPo or draw
7%
KarPo or LAUTP
95%
Draw or LAUTP
98%

Winning margin

KarPo wins by 2+
0%
LAUTP wins by 2+
82%

Team goals

KarPo 1+ goals
47%
KarPo 2+ goals
13%
KarPo 3+ goals
3%
LAUTP 1+ goals
99%
LAUTP 2+ goals
92%
LAUTP 3+ goals
78%

Draw no bet

KarPo (draw refunded)
2%
LAUTP (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KarPo at home — creates 0.25, concedes 6.25 · 4 matches

LAUTP away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KarPo attack 0.25 + LAUTP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

LAUTP attack 2.50 + KarPo defence 6.25 → ÷2 → 4.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

KarPo scores more
2%
level
5%
LAUTP scores more
93%

LAUTP at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "LAUTP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: KarPo 0–2 LAUTP

LAUTP beat KarPo 2-0 in Suomen Cup on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Arto Tolsa Areena in Kotka.