KarPo 0–11 JäPS II: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

KarPo

0 – 11

JäPS II

2/27/2022

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundRuonalan halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KarPo2%

×Draw5%

JäPS II93%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarPoExpected goals in this matchJäPS II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

4.81

KarPo

0.75

JäPS II

4.81

JäPS II creates 541% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

0.25

creates per match

3.38

6.25

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

KarPo

0.25

JäPS II

3.38

allows per match

KarPo

6.25

JäPS II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KarPo+0.00on par

JäPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KarPo ↓

JäPS II →

0–00%

0–12%

0–26%

0–39%

0–411%

1–00%

1–12%

1–24%

1–37%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–33%

2–43%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (11%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

KarPo or draw

KarPo or JäPS II

95%

Draw or JäPS II

98%

Winning margin

KarPo wins by 2+

JäPS II wins by 2+

83%

Team goals

KarPo 1+ goals

53%

KarPo 2+ goals

17%

KarPo 3+ goals

JäPS II 1+ goals

99%

JäPS II 2+ goals

94%

JäPS II 3+ goals

82%

Draw no bet

KarPo (draw refunded)

JäPS II (draw refunded)

98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

KarPo at home — creates 0.25, concedes 6.25 · 4 matches

JäPS II away — creates 3.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

KarPo attack 0.25 + JäPS II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.75

JäPS II attack 3.38 + KarPo defence 6.25 → ÷2 → 4.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 93%?"

KarPo scores more

level

JäPS II scores more

93%

JäPS II at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "JäPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff