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Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Karpaty
Karpaty
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Obolon'-Brovar II
Obolon'-Brovar II
5/16/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 22Stadion Ukrajina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Karpaty48%
×Draw23%
Obolon'-Brovar II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty
1.77
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.33

Karpaty creates 33% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Karpaty
1.71
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.05

allows per match

Karpaty
1.62
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.82

finishing

Karpaty+0.00on par
Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty ↓

Obolon'-Brovar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Karpaty or draw
71%
Karpaty or Obolon'-Brovar II
77%
Draw or Obolon'-Brovar II
52%

Winning margin

Karpaty wins by 2+
26%
Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Karpaty 1+ goals
83%
Karpaty 2+ goals
53%
Karpaty 3+ goals
26%
Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals
74%
Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals
38%
Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Karpaty (draw refunded)
62%
Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Obolon'-Brovar II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty attack 1.71 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 1.05 + Karpaty defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Karpaty scores more
48%
level
23%
Obolon'-Brovar II scores more
29%

Karpaty at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Karpaty 2–2 Obolon'-Brovar II

Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar II drew 2-2 in Druha Liga - Group A on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Ukrajina in L'viv.