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Karpaty vs Lyubomyr Stavyshche — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Karpaty
Karpaty
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lyubomyr Stavyshche
Lyubomyr Stavyshche
10/11/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 13Stadion Ukrajina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Karpaty58%
×Draw23%
Lyubomyr Stavyshche19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty
1.85
Lyubomyr Stavyshche
0.95

Karpaty creates 95% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

creates per match

Karpaty
1.71
Lyubomyr Stavyshche
0.27

allows per match

Karpaty
1.62
Lyubomyr Stavyshche
2.00

finishing

Karpaty+0.00on par
Lyubomyr Stavyshche+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty ↓

Lyubomyr Stavyshche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Karpaty or draw
81%
Karpaty or Lyubomyr Stavyshche
77%
Draw or Lyubomyr Stavyshche
42%

Winning margin

Karpaty wins by 2+
34%
Lyubomyr Stavyshche wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Karpaty 1+ goals
84%
Karpaty 2+ goals
55%
Karpaty 3+ goals
28%
Lyubomyr Stavyshche 1+ goals
61%
Lyubomyr Stavyshche 2+ goals
25%
Lyubomyr Stavyshche 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Karpaty (draw refunded)
75%
Lyubomyr Stavyshche (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Lyubomyr Stavyshche away — creates 0.27, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty attack 1.71 + Lyubomyr Stavyshche defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lyubomyr Stavyshche attack 0.27 + Karpaty defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Karpaty scores more
58%
level
23%
Lyubomyr Stavyshche scores more
19%

Karpaty at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Karpaty 2–0 Lyubomyr Stavyshche

Karpaty beat Lyubomyr Stavyshche 2-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on October 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Ukrajina in L'viv.