Karpaty 1–3 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

Karpaty

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Dynamo Kyiv

8/17/2024

Premier League · Round 3Stadion Ukraina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Karpaty25%

×Draw23%

Dynamo Kyiv52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarpatyExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.82

Karpaty

1.19

Dynamo Kyiv

1.82

Dynamo Kyiv creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.71

creates per match

2.49

1.15

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Karpaty

1.71

Dynamo Kyiv

2.49

allows per match

Karpaty

1.15

Dynamo Kyiv

0.67

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

Karpaty-0.04on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.51scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Karpaty or draw

48%

Karpaty or Dynamo Kyiv

77%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

75%

Winning margin

Karpaty wins by 2+

10%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Karpaty 1+ goals

70%

Karpaty 2+ goals

33%

Karpaty 3+ goals

12%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

84%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

54%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Karpaty (draw refunded)

32%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.15 · 6 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty attack 1.71 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.49 + Karpaty defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Karpaty scores more

25%

level

23%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

52%

Dynamo Kyiv at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff