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Karpaty vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk — Persha Liga 2019

Karpaty
Karpaty
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
11/12/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 16Stadion Ukraina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Karpaty53%
×Draw25%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty
1.61
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.96

Karpaty creates 68% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 80 away

creates per match

Karpaty
1.92
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.99

allows per match

Karpaty
0.92
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.31

finishing

Karpaty+0.00on par
Ahrobiznes Volochysk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty ↓

Ahrobiznes Volochysk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Karpaty or draw
77%
Karpaty or Ahrobiznes Volochysk
75%
Draw or Ahrobiznes Volochysk
47%

Winning margin

Karpaty wins by 2+
28%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Karpaty 1+ goals
80%
Karpaty 2+ goals
48%
Karpaty 3+ goals
22%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1+ goals
62%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2+ goals
25%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Karpaty (draw refunded)
70%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Ahrobiznes Volochysk away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty attack 1.92 + Ahrobiznes Volochysk defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ahrobiznes Volochysk attack 0.99 + Karpaty defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Karpaty scores more
53%
level
25%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk scores more
23%

Karpaty at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karpaty vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Karpaty beat Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3-0 in Persha Liga on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ukraina in Lviv.