Karpaty Lviv U19 0–1 Vorskla U19: Result & Stats

Karpaty Lviv U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vorskla U19

8/30/2024

U19 League · Round 5Stadion SKIF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Karpaty Lviv U1956%

×Draw22%

Vorskla U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karpaty Lviv U19Expected goals in this matchVorskla U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.15

Karpaty Lviv U19

1.98

Vorskla U19

1.15

Karpaty Lviv U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

2.30

creates per match

0.97

1.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Karpaty Lviv U19

2.30

Vorskla U19

0.97

allows per match

Karpaty Lviv U19

1.33

Vorskla U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karpaty Lviv U19+0.00on par

Vorskla U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Lviv U19 ↓

Vorskla U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Karpaty Lviv U19 or draw

78%

Karpaty Lviv U19 or Vorskla U19

78%

Draw or Vorskla U19

44%

Winning margin

Karpaty Lviv U19 wins by 2+

33%

Vorskla U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Karpaty Lviv U19 1+ goals

86%

Karpaty Lviv U19 2+ goals

59%

Karpaty Lviv U19 3+ goals

31%

Vorskla U19 1+ goals

68%

Vorskla U19 2+ goals

32%

Vorskla U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Lviv U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Lviv U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Vorskla U19 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Lviv U19 attack 2.30 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Vorskla U19 attack 0.97 + Karpaty Lviv U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Karpaty Lviv U19 scores more

56%

level

22%

Vorskla U19 scores more

22%

Karpaty Lviv U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Karpaty Lviv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff