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Karpaty Lviv U19 vs Inhulets' U19 — U19 League 2023

Karpaty Lviv U19
Karpaty Lviv U19
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Inhulets' U19
Inhulets' U19
M. Tlumak 83'
F. D. Yaroslavovych 77'
M. Kyrychok 33'
M. Burenko 30'
L. Kuzyk 4'
10/3/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 9Stadion SKIF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Karpaty Lviv U1973%
×Draw16%
Inhulets' U1911%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty Lviv U19
2.62
Inhulets' U19
0.93

Karpaty Lviv U19 creates 182% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Karpaty Lviv U19
2.30
Inhulets' U19
0.53

allows per match

Karpaty Lviv U19
1.33
Inhulets' U19
2.93

finishing

Karpaty Lviv U19+0.00on par
Inhulets' U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Lviv U19 ↓

Inhulets' U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Karpaty Lviv U19 or draw
89%
Karpaty Lviv U19 or Inhulets' U19
84%
Draw or Inhulets' U19
27%

Winning margin

Karpaty Lviv U19 wins by 2+
51%
Inhulets' U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Karpaty Lviv U19 1+ goals
93%
Karpaty Lviv U19 2+ goals
73%
Karpaty Lviv U19 3+ goals
48%
Inhulets' U19 1+ goals
61%
Inhulets' U19 2+ goals
24%
Inhulets' U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Lviv U19 (draw refunded)
87%
Inhulets' U19 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Lviv U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Inhulets' U19 away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Lviv U19 attack 2.30 + Inhulets' U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.62

Inhulets' U19 attack 0.53 + Karpaty Lviv U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Karpaty Lviv U19 scores more
73%
level
16%
Inhulets' U19 scores more
11%

Karpaty Lviv U19 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Karpaty Lviv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
L. Kuzyk
30'
M. Burenko
33'
M. Kyrychok
77'
F. D. Yaroslavovych
83'
M. Tlumak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Karpaty Lviv U19 5 – 0 Inhulets' U19

Karpaty Lviv U19 beat Inhulets' U19 5-0 in U19 League on October 3, 2024.

Goals: L. Kuzyk (4'), M. Burenko (30'), M. Kyrychok (33'), F. D. Yaroslavovych (77'), M. Tlumak (83').

The match was played at Stadion SKIF in Lviv.