Karpaty Lviv U19 1–1 Chornomorets U19

Karpaty Lviv U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chornomorets U19

3/29/2025

U19 League · Round 22Stadion SKIF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Karpaty Lviv U1963%

×Draw20%

Chornomorets U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karpaty Lviv U19Expected goals in this matchChornomorets U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.10

Karpaty Lviv U19

2.23

Chornomorets U19

1.10

Karpaty Lviv U19 creates 103% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

2.30

creates per match

0.87

1.33

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Karpaty Lviv U19

2.30

Chornomorets U19

0.87

allows per match

Karpaty Lviv U19

1.33

Chornomorets U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karpaty Lviv U19+0.00on par

Chornomorets U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Lviv U19 ↓

Chornomorets U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Karpaty Lviv U19 or draw

82%

Karpaty Lviv U19 or Chornomorets U19

80%

Draw or Chornomorets U19

37%

Winning margin

Karpaty Lviv U19 wins by 2+

40%

Chornomorets U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Karpaty Lviv U19 1+ goals

89%

Karpaty Lviv U19 2+ goals

65%

Karpaty Lviv U19 3+ goals

38%

Chornomorets U19 1+ goals

67%

Chornomorets U19 2+ goals

30%

Chornomorets U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Lviv U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Chornomorets U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Lviv U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Chornomorets U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Lviv U19 attack 2.30 + Chornomorets U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.23

Chornomorets U19 attack 0.87 + Karpaty Lviv U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Karpaty Lviv U19 scores more

63%

level

20%

Chornomorets U19 scores more

18%

Karpaty Lviv U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Karpaty Lviv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Karpaty Lviv U19 1–1 Chornomorets U19

Karpaty Lviv U19 and Chornomorets U19 drew 1-1 in U19 League on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion SKIF in Lviv.

Karpaty Lviv U19 vs Chornomorets U19 — U19 League 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

U19 League: Karpaty Lviv U19 1–1 Chornomorets U19