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Karpaty Krosno vs Wieczysta Kraków — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
8/4/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karpaty Krosno23%
×Draw25%
Wieczysta Kraków52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty Krosno
0.97
Wieczysta Kraków
1.60

Wieczysta Kraków creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Karpaty Krosno
0.59
Wieczysta Kraków
1.74

allows per match

Karpaty Krosno
1.47
Wieczysta Kraków
1.35

finishing

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par
Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Krosno ↓

Wieczysta Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Karpaty Krosno or draw
48%
Karpaty Krosno or Wieczysta Kraków
75%
Draw or Wieczysta Kraków
77%

Winning margin

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
8%
Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
62%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
25%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
7%
Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
80%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
47%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
31%
Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Krosno at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Wieczysta Kraków away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.59 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.97

Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.74 + Karpaty Krosno defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Karpaty Krosno scores more
23%
level
25%
Wieczysta Kraków scores more
52%

Wieczysta Kraków at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karpaty Krosno vs Wieczysta Kraków

Karpaty Krosno beat Wieczysta Kraków 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Krosno.