Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karpaty Krosno vs Wiązownica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wiązownica
Wiązownica
10/13/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karpaty Krosno38%
×Draw26%
Wiązownica37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty Krosno
1.38
Wiązownica
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

Karpaty Krosno
0.59
Wiązownica
1.26

allows per match

Karpaty Krosno
1.47
Wiązownica
2.17

finishing

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par
Wiązownica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Krosno ↓

Wiązownica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Karpaty Krosno or draw
63%
Karpaty Krosno or Wiązownica
74%
Draw or Wiązownica
62%

Winning margin

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
17%
Wiązownica wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
75%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
40%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
16%
Wiązownica 1+ goals
74%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
39%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
51%
Wiązownica (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Krosno at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Wiązownica away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.59 + Wiązownica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Wiązownica attack 1.26 + Karpaty Krosno defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Karpaty Krosno scores more
38%
level
26%
Wiązownica scores more
37%

Karpaty Krosno at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Karpaty Krosno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karpaty Krosno vs Wiązownica

Wiązownica beat Karpaty Krosno 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Krosno.