Karpaty Krosno 0–0 Świdniczanka Świdnik

Karpaty Krosno

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Świdniczanka Świdnik

8/19/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karpaty Krosno34%

×Draw27%

Świdniczanka Świdnik39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karpaty KrosnoExpected goals in this matchŚwidniczanka Świdnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.31

Karpaty Krosno

1.21

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

0.59

creates per match

1.16

1.47

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Karpaty Krosno

0.59

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.16

allows per match

Karpaty Krosno

1.47

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Krosno ↓

Świdniczanka Świdnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Karpaty Krosno or draw

61%

Karpaty Krosno or Świdniczanka Świdnik

73%

Draw or Świdniczanka Świdnik

66%

Winning margin

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+

14%

Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals

70%

Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals

34%

Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals

12%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals

73%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals

38%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)

47%

Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Krosno at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.59 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.21

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.16 + Karpaty Krosno defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karpaty Krosno scores more

34%

level

27%

Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more

39%

Świdniczanka Świdnik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Świdniczanka Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff