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Karpaty Krosno vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
9/9/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karpaty Krosno36%
×Draw26%
Sokół Sieniawa38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty Krosno
1.33
Sokół Sieniawa
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 71 away

creates per match

Karpaty Krosno
0.59
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

Karpaty Krosno
1.47
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Krosno ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Karpaty Krosno or draw
62%
Karpaty Krosno or Sokół Sieniawa
74%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
64%

Winning margin

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
16%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
74%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
38%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
15%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
75%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
40%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
49%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Krosno at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.59 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + Karpaty Krosno defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Karpaty Krosno scores more
36%
level
26%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
38%

Sokół Sieniawa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karpaty Krosno vs Sokół Sieniawa

Sokół Sieniawa beat Karpaty Krosno 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Krosno.