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Karpaty Krosno vs Garbarnia Kraków — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
4/19/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karpaty Krosno34%
×Draw26%
Garbarnia Kraków40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty Krosno
1.26
Garbarnia Kraków
1.38

Garbarnia Kraków creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Karpaty Krosno
0.59
Garbarnia Kraków
1.29

allows per match

Karpaty Krosno
1.47
Garbarnia Kraków
1.94

finishing

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Krosno ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Karpaty Krosno or draw
60%
Karpaty Krosno or Garbarnia Kraków
74%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
66%

Winning margin

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
15%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
72%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
36%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
13%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
75%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
40%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
46%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Krosno at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.59 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.26

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.29 + Karpaty Krosno defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Karpaty Krosno scores more
34%
level
26%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
40%

Garbarnia Kraków at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Karpaty Krosno 0–1 Garbarnia Kraków

Garbarnia Kraków beat Karpaty Krosno 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Krosno.