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Karpaty II vs UCSA — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Karpaty II
Karpaty II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
UCSA
UCSA
8/27/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 4Stadion Ukraina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Karpaty II14%
×Draw21%
UCSA65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty II
0.77
UCSA
1.96

UCSA creates 155% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Karpaty II
1.08
UCSA
2.15

allows per match

Karpaty II
1.77
UCSA
0.46

finishing

Karpaty II+0.00on par
UCSA+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty II ↓

UCSA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Karpaty II or draw
35%
Karpaty II or UCSA
79%
Draw or UCSA
86%

Winning margin

Karpaty II wins by 2+
4%
UCSA wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Karpaty II 1+ goals
54%
Karpaty II 2+ goals
18%
Karpaty II 3+ goals
4%
UCSA 1+ goals
86%
UCSA 2+ goals
58%
UCSA 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Karpaty II (draw refunded)
18%
UCSA (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

UCSA away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty II attack 1.08 + UCSA defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.77

UCSA attack 2.15 + Karpaty II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Karpaty II scores more
14%
level
21%
UCSA scores more
65%

UCSA at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "UCSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Karpaty II 0–2 UCSA

UCSA beat Karpaty II 2-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ukraina in Lviv.