Karpaty Halych 0–3 Uzhhorod: Result & Stats

Karpaty Halych

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Uzhhorod

V. Duran 84'

O. Vulchyn 65' (OG)

V. Ferentsyk 15'

5/15/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 22Stadion Ukrajina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Karpaty Halych43%

×Draw26%

Uzhhorod31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karpaty HalychExpected goals in this matchUzhhorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.19

Karpaty Halych

1.44

Uzhhorod

1.19

Karpaty Halych creates 21% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 45 away

1.45

creates per match

1.51

0.86

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Karpaty Halych

1.45

Uzhhorod

1.51

allows per match

Karpaty Halych

0.86

Uzhhorod

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karpaty Halych+0.00on par

Uzhhorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Halych ↓

Uzhhorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Karpaty Halych or draw

69%

Karpaty Halych or Uzhhorod

74%

Draw or Uzhhorod

57%

Winning margin

Karpaty Halych wins by 2+

21%

Uzhhorod wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Karpaty Halych 1+ goals

76%

Karpaty Halych 2+ goals

42%

Karpaty Halych 3+ goals

18%

Uzhhorod 1+ goals

70%

Uzhhorod 2+ goals

33%

Uzhhorod 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)

58%

Uzhhorod (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Halych at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Uzhhorod away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Halych attack 1.45 + Uzhhorod defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Uzhhorod attack 1.51 + Karpaty Halych defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Karpaty Halych scores more

43%

level

26%

Uzhhorod scores more

31%

Karpaty Halych at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Karpaty Halych will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

V. Ferentsyk

53'

A. Bey← V. Semchuk

60'

V. Strashkevych← B. Kozak

64'

P. Tyshchuk← V. Ferentsyk

64'

R. Tsen← Y. Chonka

65'

V. Tanchyn← V. Merdeev

65'

O. VulchynOwn goal

68'

I. Khudobyak← V. Khomchenko

81'

V. Duran← O. Vyshnevskyi

84'

V. Duran

90'

I. Povkhan← V. Shkinder

90'

M. Lyutnyanskyi← S. Mayboroda

Karpaty

Uzhhorod

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Gnativ

53'▲A. Bey←▼V. Semchuk

60'▲V. Strashkevych←▼B. Kozak

65'▲V. Tanchyn←▼V. Merdeev

68'▲I. Khudobyak←▼V. Khomchenko

Karpaty Halych substitutes

BeyStrashkevychTanchynKhudobyak

Manager: V. Vasyutyk

64'▲P. Tyshchuk←▼V. Ferentsyk

64'▲R. Tsen←▼Y. Chonka

81'▲V. Duran←▼O. Vyshnevskyi

90'▲I. Povkhan←▼V. Shkinder

90'▲M. Lyutnyanskyi←▼S. Mayboroda

Uzhhorod substitutes

TyshchukTsenDuranPovkhanLyutnyanskyi

Druha Liga - Group A: Karpaty Halych 0–3 Uzhhorod

Uzhhorod beat Karpaty Halych 3-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on May 15, 2021.

Goals: V. Ferentsyk (15'), O. Vulchyn (65' o.g.), V. Duran (84').

The match was played at Stadion Ukrajina in L'viv.

Karpaty Halych vs Uzhhorod — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Druha Liga - Group A: Karpaty Halych 0–3 Uzhhorod