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Karpaty Halych vs Munkács — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Karpaty Halych
Karpaty Halych
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Munkács
Munkács
11/13/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 18Het-Trick Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Karpaty Halych45%
×Draw27%
Munkács28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty Halych
1.39
Munkács
1.04

Karpaty Halych creates 34% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

creates per match

Karpaty Halych
1.45
Munkács
1.22

allows per match

Karpaty Halych
0.86
Munkács
1.33

finishing

Karpaty Halych+0.00on par
Munkács+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Halych ↓

Munkács →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Karpaty Halych or draw
72%
Karpaty Halych or Munkács
73%
Draw or Munkács
55%

Winning margin

Karpaty Halych wins by 2+
21%
Munkács wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Karpaty Halych 1+ goals
75%
Karpaty Halych 2+ goals
40%
Karpaty Halych 3+ goals
16%
Munkács 1+ goals
65%
Munkács 2+ goals
28%
Munkács 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)
61%
Munkács (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Halych at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Munkács away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Halych attack 1.45 + Munkács defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Munkács attack 1.22 + Karpaty Halych defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Karpaty Halych scores more
45%
level
27%
Munkács scores more
28%

Karpaty Halych at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Karpaty Halych will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Karpaty Halych 0–0 Munkács

Karpaty Halych and Munkács drew 0-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Het-Trick Arena in Ivano-Frankivs'ka.