Karpaty Halych 0–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Karpaty Halych

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

10/23/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 15Stadion Enerhetik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Karpaty Halych39%

×Draw28%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karpaty HalychExpected goals in this matchEpitsentr Dunayivtsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.12

Karpaty Halych

1.25

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.12

Karpaty Halych creates 12% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

1.45

creates per match

1.38

0.86

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Karpaty Halych

1.45

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.38

allows per match

Karpaty Halych

0.86

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karpaty Halych+0.00on par

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Halych ↓

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Karpaty Halych or draw

67%

Karpaty Halych or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

72%

Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

61%

Winning margin

Karpaty Halych wins by 2+

17%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Karpaty Halych 1+ goals

71%

Karpaty Halych 2+ goals

36%

Karpaty Halych 3+ goals

13%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals

67%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals

31%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)

54%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Halych at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Halych attack 1.45 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.38 + Karpaty Halych defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karpaty Halych scores more

39%

level

28%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more

33%

Karpaty Halych at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Karpaty Halych will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff