Karpaty Halych 1–1 Chernihiv: Result & Stats

Karpaty Halych

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chernihiv

N. Sushchak 68'

K. Kryvoborodenko 40'

9/26/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 10Stadion Enerhetik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Karpaty Halych45%

×Draw29%

Chernihiv26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karpaty HalychExpected goals in this matchChernihiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.88

Karpaty Halych

1.25

Chernihiv

0.88

Karpaty Halych creates 42% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 31 away

1.45

creates per match

0.90

0.86

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Karpaty Halych

1.45

Chernihiv

0.90

allows per match

Karpaty Halych

0.86

Chernihiv

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karpaty Halych+0.00on par

Chernihiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Halych ↓

Chernihiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Karpaty Halych or draw

74%

Karpaty Halych or Chernihiv

71%

Draw or Chernihiv

55%

Winning margin

Karpaty Halych wins by 2+

20%

Chernihiv wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Karpaty Halych 1+ goals

71%

Karpaty Halych 2+ goals

36%

Karpaty Halych 3+ goals

13%

Chernihiv 1+ goals

59%

Chernihiv 2+ goals

22%

Chernihiv 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)

63%

Chernihiv (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Halych at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Chernihiv away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.06 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Halych attack 1.45 + Chernihiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Chernihiv attack 0.90 + Karpaty Halych defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Karpaty Halych scores more

45%

level

29%

Chernihiv scores more

26%

Karpaty Halych at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Karpaty Halych will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

K. Kryvoborodenko

46'

D. Vallejos← B. Mordas

68'

N. Sushchak

70'

O. Avramenko← O. Bereza

75'

A. Makarenko← D. Myronenko

80'

V. Shevchuk← A. Bey

81'

D. Kildii← M. Chaus

88'

M. Shumylo← K. Kryvoborodenko

Karpaty

Chernihiv

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Carlos Inarejos

46'▲D. Vallejos←▼B. Mordas

70'▲O. Avramenko←▼O. Bereza

80'▲V. Shevchuk←▼A. Bey

Karpaty Halych substitutes

VallejosAvramenkoShevchuk

Manager: V. Chornyi

75'▲A. Makarenko←▼D. Myronenko

81'▲D. Kildii←▼M. Chaus

88'▲M. Shumylo←▼K. Kryvoborodenko

Chernihiv substitutes

MakarenkoKildiiShumylo