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Karonga United vs TN Stars — Super League 2026

Karonga United
Karonga United
FT
1 – 1
TN Stars
TN Stars
9/18/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Karonga United62%
×Draw23%
TN Stars15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karonga United
1.74
TN Stars
0.71

Karonga United creates 145% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 32 away

creates per match

Karonga United
1.26
TN Stars
0.59

allows per match

Karonga United
0.83
TN Stars
2.22

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par
TN Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

TN Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw
85%
Karonga United or TN Stars
77%
Draw or TN Stars
38%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+
36%
TN Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals
82%
Karonga United 2+ goals
52%
Karonga United 3+ goals
25%
TN Stars 1+ goals
51%
TN Stars 2+ goals
16%
TN Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)
81%
TN Stars (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 81 matches

TN Stars away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.26 + TN Stars defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.74

TN Stars attack 0.59 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Karonga United scores more
62%
level
23%
TN Stars scores more
15%

Karonga United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karonga United vs TN Stars

Karonga United and TN Stars drew 1-1 in Super League on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.