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Karonga United vs Sable Farming — Super League 2026

Karonga United
Karonga United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sable Farming
Sable Farming
6/26/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Karonga United53%
×Draw28%
Sable Farming19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karonga United
1.39
Sable Farming
0.71

Karonga United creates 96% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Karonga United
1.24
Sable Farming
0.60

allows per match

Karonga United
0.83
Sable Farming
1.53

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par
Sable Farming+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

Sable Farming →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw
81%
Karonga United or Sable Farming
72%
Draw or Sable Farming
47%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+
26%
Sable Farming wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals
75%
Karonga United 2+ goals
40%
Karonga United 3+ goals
16%
Sable Farming 1+ goals
51%
Sable Farming 2+ goals
16%
Sable Farming 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)
74%
Sable Farming (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.83 · 75 matches

Sable Farming away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.24 + Sable Farming defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sable Farming attack 0.60 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Karonga United scores more
53%
level
28%
Sable Farming scores more
19%

Karonga United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Karonga United 1–1 Sable Farming

Karonga United and Sable Farming drew 1-1 in Super League on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.