Karonga United 2–1 Nyasa Big Bullets

Karonga United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nyasa Big Bullets

7/21/2024

Super League · Round 11Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Karonga United31%

×Draw31%

Nyasa Big Bullets37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karonga UnitedExpected goals in this matchNyasa Big Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.03

Karonga United

0.92

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.03

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 12% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 79 away

1.26

creates per match

1.23

0.83

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Karonga United

1.26

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.23

allows per match

Karonga United

0.83

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw

63%

Karonga United or Nyasa Big Bullets

69%

Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets

69%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+

11%

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals

60%

Karonga United 2+ goals

23%

Karonga United 3+ goals

7%

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals

64%

Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals

28%

Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)

46%

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 81 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.57 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.26 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.92

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 1.23 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Karonga United scores more

31%

level

31%

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more

37%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff