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Karonga United vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

Karonga United
Karonga United
FT
4 – 0
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
C. Nyondo 90+4', 77'
M. Kamanga 86'
V. Lungu 24'
8/21/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Karonga United41%
×Draw30%
Kamuzu Barracks29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karonga United
1.15
Kamuzu Barracks
0.91

Karonga United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

creates per match

Karonga United
1.24
Kamuzu Barracks
0.99

allows per match

Karonga United
0.83
Kamuzu Barracks
1.05

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw
71%
Karonga United or Kamuzu Barracks
70%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
59%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+
17%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals
68%
Karonga United 2+ goals
32%
Karonga United 3+ goals
11%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
60%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
23%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)
59%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.83 · 75 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.05 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.24 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

Kamuzu Barracks attack 0.99 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Karonga United scores more
41%
level
30%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
29%

Karonga United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
V. Lungu
77'
C. Nyondo
86'
M. Kamanga
88'
90+4'
C. Nyondo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karonga United vs Kamuzu Barracks

Karonga United beat Kamuzu Barracks 4-0 in Super League on August 21, 2021.

Goals: V. Lungu (24'), C. Nyondo (77', 90+4'), M. Kamanga (86').

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.