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Kamuzu Barracks vs Karonga United — Super League 2026

Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Karonga United
Karonga United
5/30/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Kamuzu Barracks47%
×Draw29%
Karonga United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamuzu Barracks
1.25
Karonga United
0.78

Kamuzu Barracks creates 60% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 82 away

creates per match

Kamuzu Barracks
1.07
Karonga United
0.78

allows per match

Kamuzu Barracks
0.77
Karonga United
1.44

finishing

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par
Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamuzu Barracks ↓

Karonga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kamuzu Barracks or draw
77%
Kamuzu Barracks or Karonga United
71%
Draw or Karonga United
53%

Winning margin

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
22%
Karonga United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
71%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
36%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
13%
Karonga United 1+ goals
54%
Karonga United 2+ goals
18%
Karonga United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
67%
Karonga United (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamuzu Barracks at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.77 · 83 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.07 + Karonga United defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Karonga United attack 0.78 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kamuzu Barracks scores more
47%
level
29%
Karonga United scores more
23%

Kamuzu Barracks at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamuzu Barracks vs Karonga United

Kamuzu Barracks beat Karonga United 2-1 in Super League on May 30, 2024.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.