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Karonga United vs Ekhaya — Super League 2026

Karonga United
Karonga United
Preview
12:30
Ekhaya
Ekhaya
2/20/2027Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30
44%
Karonga United
model favours
44%29%27%

Karonga United win just 22% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Karonga United44%
×Draw29%
Ekhaya27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karonga United
1.23
Ekhaya
0.89

Karonga United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 20 away

creates per match

Karonga United
1.26
Ekhaya
0.95

allows per match

Karonga United
0.83
Ekhaya
1.20

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par
Ekhaya+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

Ekhaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw
73%
Karonga United or Ekhaya
71%
Draw or Ekhaya
56%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+
20%
Ekhaya wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals
71%
Karonga United 2+ goals
35%
Karonga United 3+ goals
13%
Ekhaya 1+ goals
59%
Ekhaya 2+ goals
22%
Ekhaya 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)
62%
Ekhaya (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 81 matches

Ekhaya away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.26 + Ekhaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ekhaya attack 0.95 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Karonga United scores more
44%
level
29%
Ekhaya scores more
27%

Karonga United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
United
LDLWL
Ekhaya
DWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Karonga United vs Ekhaya — Match Preview

Karonga United face Ekhaya on February 20, 2027 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.