Ekhaya 2–0 Karonga United: Result & Stats

Ekhaya

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Karonga United

5/21/2025

Super League · Round 6Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ekhaya57%

×Draw26%

Karonga United17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EkhayaExpected goals in this matchKaronga United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.66

Ekhaya

1.48

Karonga United

0.66

Ekhaya creates 124% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 82 away

1.53

creates per match

0.78

0.53

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Ekhaya

1.53

Karonga United

0.78

allows per match

Ekhaya

0.53

Karonga United

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekhaya+0.00on par

Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekhaya ↓

Karonga United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ekhaya or draw

83%

Ekhaya or Karonga United

74%

Draw or Karonga United

43%

Winning margin

Ekhaya wins by 2+

30%

Karonga United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ekhaya 1+ goals

77%

Ekhaya 2+ goals

43%

Ekhaya 3+ goals

19%

Karonga United 1+ goals

48%

Karonga United 2+ goals

14%

Karonga United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ekhaya (draw refunded)

77%

Karonga United (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekhaya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekhaya attack 1.53 + Karonga United defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Karonga United attack 0.78 + Ekhaya defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ekhaya scores more

57%

level

26%

Karonga United scores more

17%

Ekhaya at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ekhaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff