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Karonga United vs Dedza Dynamos — Super League 2026

Karonga United
Karonga United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
11/26/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Karonga United53%
×Draw26%
Dedza Dynamos20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karonga United
1.48
Dedza Dynamos
0.80

Karonga United creates 85% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 65 away

creates per match

Karonga United
1.26
Dedza Dynamos
0.78

allows per match

Karonga United
0.83
Dedza Dynamos
1.69

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par
Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

Dedza Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw
80%
Karonga United or Dedza Dynamos
74%
Draw or Dedza Dynamos
47%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+
27%
Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals
77%
Karonga United 2+ goals
43%
Karonga United 3+ goals
19%
Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
55%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
19%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)
72%
Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 81 matches

Dedza Dynamos away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.26 + Dedza Dynamos defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dedza Dynamos attack 0.78 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Karonga United scores more
53%
level
26%
Dedza Dynamos scores more
20%

Karonga United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karonga United vs Dedza Dynamos

Karonga United beat Dedza Dynamos 3-1 in Super League on November 26, 2025.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.