Karonga United 1–0 Baka City: Result & Stats

Karonga United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Baka City

8/31/2024

Super League · Round 15Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Karonga United76%

×Draw16%

Baka City8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karonga UnitedExpected goals in this matchBaka City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

0.65

Karonga United

2.37

Baka City

0.65

Karonga United creates 265% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

1.26

creates per match

0.47

0.83

allows per match

3.47

creates per match

Karonga United

1.26

Baka City

0.47

allows per match

Karonga United

0.83

Baka City

3.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par

Baka City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

Baka City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw

92%

Karonga United or Baka City

84%

Draw or Baka City

24%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+

52%

Baka City wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals

91%

Karonga United 2+ goals

68%

Karonga United 3+ goals

42%

Baka City 1+ goals

48%

Baka City 2+ goals

14%

Baka City 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)

90%

Baka City (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 81 matches

Baka City away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.26 + Baka City defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.37

Baka City attack 0.47 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Karonga United scores more

76%

level

16%

Baka City scores more

8%

Karonga United at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff