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Karnobat vs Zagorets — Third League - Southeast 2018

Karnobat
Karnobat
CANC
00:00
Zagorets
Zagorets
4/16/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 27Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Karnobat25%
×Draw24%
Zagorets52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karnobat
1.13
Zagorets
1.74

Zagorets creates 54% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 135 away

creates per match

Karnobat
1.13
Zagorets
1.57

allows per match

Karnobat
1.91
Zagorets
1.14

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par
Zagorets+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Zagorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw
48%
Karnobat or Zagorets
76%
Draw or Zagorets
75%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+
10%
Zagorets wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals
68%
Karnobat 2+ goals
31%
Karnobat 3+ goals
11%
Zagorets 1+ goals
82%
Zagorets 2+ goals
52%
Zagorets 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)
32%
Zagorets (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Zagorets away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Zagorets defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Zagorets attack 1.57 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Karnobat scores more
25%
level
24%
Zagorets scores more
52%

Zagorets at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Karnobat vs Zagorets — Match Preview

Karnobat face Zagorets on April 16, 2020 in this Third League - Southeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Karnobat host Zagorets at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.